Japan 5-Year JGB Auction

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.98%

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

0.938%

Period:

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Japan 5-Year JGB Auction measures the demand for Japanese Government Bonds with a five-year maturity, focusing primarily on the yield and bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates investor interest. This auction assesses the level of confidence in Japan's economy and government financial stability, serving as a barometer for future borrowing costs and monetary policy direction.

Frequency

The 5-Year JGB Auction is conducted on a regular basis, typically once a month, with the results released the following business day after the auction.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the results of the 5-Year JGB Auction as they can significantly influence market sentiment and interest rates on Japanese debt, impacting the Japanese Yen (JPY), equities, and global bond markets. Strong demand and lower yields are often viewed favorably, suggesting investor confidence, while weak demand can indicate economic concerns, leading to bearish reactions in related financial assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The auction results are derived from competitive bids submitted by a variety of institutional investors, such as banks, insurance companies, and fund managers, during the auction process. The yield on the bonds is determined based on the highest accepted bid, while the bid-to-cover ratio is calculated by dividing the total amount of bids received by the total amount of bonds offered.

Description

The 5-Year JGB Auction serves as a critical economic indicator for Japan, reflecting investor confidence in the government's fiscal stance and the overall economic environment. The auction results directly impact the yield curve, influencing borrowing costs for both the government and businesses, and may signal shifting trends in monetary policy.

Additional Notes

This auction is regarded as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current conditions in the bond market and broader economic sentiment. The results often correlate with trends in global bond markets, affecting the domestic and international interest rate environment.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the auction results indicate stronger than expected demand: Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. If demand is weaker than anticipated: Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Previous
May 15, 2025	0.98%	0.938%
Apr 10, 2025	0.938%	1.157%
Mar 10, 2025	1.157%	0.982%
Feb 14, 2025	0.982%	0.876%
Jan 14, 2025	0.876%	0.734%
Dec 10, 2024	0.734%	0.706%
Nov 15, 2024	0.706%	0.562%
Oct 10, 2024	0.562%	0.521%
Sep 10, 2024	0.521%	0.452%
Aug 14, 2024	0.452%	0.612%
Jul 09, 2024	0.612%	0.512%
Jun 20, 2024	0.512%	0.572%
May 14, 2024	0.572%	0.404%
Apr 09, 2024	0.404%	0.372%
Feb 09, 2024	0.31%	0.197%
Jan 16, 2024	0.197%	0.325%
Dec 12, 2023	0.325%	0.418%
Nov 14, 2023	0.418%	0.33%
Oct 11, 2023	0.33%	0.291%
Sep 12, 2023	0.291%	0.189%
Aug 15, 2023	0.189%	0.132%
Jul 11, 2023	0.132%	0.068%
Jun 22, 2023	0.068%	0.116%
May 15, 2023	0.116%	0.157%
Apr 11, 2023	0.157%	0.121%
Mar 14, 2023	0.121%	0.216%
Feb 16, 2023	0.216%	0.393%
Jan 13, 2023	0.393%	0.121%
Dec 08, 2022	0.121%	0.06%
Nov 15, 2022	0.06%	0.081%
Oct 14, 2022	0.081%	0.04%
Jul 12, 2022	0.039%	0.083%
Jun 21, 2022	0.083%	0.017%
May 18, 2022	0.017%	0.007%