Japan 20-Year JGB Auction

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

2.453%

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

2.349%

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Japan 20-Year JGB Auction measures the yield and demand for 20-year Japanese Government Bonds issued in an auction format. It primarily focuses on the interest rates that investors are willing to accept for lending money to the government over a two-decade period, thus assessing market confidence, borrowing costs, and overall investor sentiment.

Frequency

This auction occurs on a regular basis, typically conducted monthly, with the exact dates varying and results usually released shortly after the auction is completed.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the results of the 20-Year JGB Auction as they can significantly impact financial markets, influencing the Japanese yen and the pricing of long-term debt instruments. A strong auction, characterized by high demand and lower yields, is often perceived as bullish for equities, while weak demand can lead to bearish sentiments and upwards pressure on yields.

What Is It Derived From?

The auction results are derived from bids submitted by institutional and retail investors, with the final yield set based on the average of accepted bids. The total amount of bonds offered and the cumulative bids received express the level of demand and confidence from the market participants, calculated using strict methodologies to ensure transparency.

Description

The Japan 20-Year JGB Auction results in both preliminary and final reports, where preliminary data is based on early bid summaries that may be revised in the final release. The preliminary data tends to influence market sentiment immediately upon its release, while the final data provides a more accurate assessment, potentially leading to adjustments in investor outlook.

Additional Notes

This auction serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current market perceptions about the economic environment and creditworthiness of the Japanese government. The results can also be compared to other bond auctions or economic indicators, providing insight into Japan’s monetary policy direction and broader economic trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the auction results show higher-than-expected demand: Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. If the results are lower than forecasted: Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Previous
May 20, 2025	2.453%	2.349%
Apr 15, 2025	2.349%	2.278%
Mar 12, 2025	2.278%	2.028%
Feb 18, 2025	2.028%	1.983%
Jan 16, 2025	1.983%	1.879%
Dec 17, 2024	1.879%	1.898%
Nov 21, 2024	1.898%	1.8%
Oct 24, 2024	1.8%	1.69%
Sep 12, 2024	1.69%	1.706%
Aug 20, 2024	1.706%	1.913%
Jul 11, 2024	1.913%	1.843%
Jun 25, 2024	1.843%	1.734%
May 16, 2024	1.734%	1.63%
Apr 11, 2024	1.63%	1.559%
Mar 14, 2024	1.559%	1.51%
Feb 20, 2024	1.51%	1.383%
Jan 18, 2024	1.383%	1.414%
Dec 14, 2023	1.414%	1.423%
Nov 21, 2023	1.423%	1.553%
Oct 17, 2023	1.553%	1.433%
Sep 14, 2023	1.433%	1.322%
Aug 17, 2023	1.322%	1.07%
Jul 13, 2023	1.07%	0.948%
Jun 27, 2023	0.948%	0.992%
May 17, 2023	0.992%	1.085%
Apr 20, 2023	1.085%	1.079%
Mar 16, 2023	1.079%	1.306%
Feb 21, 2023	1.306%	1.341%
Jan 19, 2023	1.341%	1.088%
Dec 15, 2022	1.088%	1.029%
Nov 17, 2022	1.029%	1.123%
Oct 18, 2022	1.123%	0.894%
Sep 15, 2022	0.894%	0.752%
Aug 18, 2022	0.752%	0.902%
Jul 14, 2022	0.902%	0.905%
Jun 23, 2022	0.905%	0.757%
May 20, 2022	0.757%	0.644%