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United States USD

United States 17-Week Bill Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
4.2%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
4.195%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States 17-Week Bill Auction measures the interest rates and demand for short-term government debt securities, specifically focusing on the financial market’s perception of government creditworthiness and its monetary policy stance. It assesses the borrowing costs for the U.S. Treasury and reflects investor confidence in the economy, key indicators being the auction yield and bid-to-cover ratio.
Frequency
This auction occurs weekly, typically on Mondays, and the results are released on the same day, providing a final figure for the rates and allocation of the bills.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the 17-Week Bill Auction as it influences short-term interest rates and monetary policy expectations, impacting major assets like the U.S. dollar, bonds, and equities. A higher demand or lower yield at auction indicates strong investor confidence, which is generally seen as bullish for the currency, while weaker outcomes can signal economic concerns, bearing negatively on market sentiment.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from competitive bids submitted by primary dealers, institutional investors, and other market participants, providing a weighted average of the accepted bids and the total amount of bids compared to the issuance. This calculation includes methodologies such as the bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates the demand for the securities being offered.
Description
The United States 17-Week Bill Auction primarily focuses on the sentiment in the short-term debt market, providing insight into economic expectations amid various financial conditions. It offers vital data for assessing liquidity conditions and government financing needs, which can also influence longer-term rates and overall fiscal policy.
Additional Notes
The 17-Week Bill Auction is often considered a leading indicator as it provides insights into future interest rate trends and market sentiment regarding fiscal policy. Observations from this auction are also compared to other Treasury auctions and economic indicators, such as the yield on longer-dated securities, to gauge the market's perception of future economic activity.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected demand: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected demand: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
4.2%
4.195%
4.195%
4.18%
4.175%
4.18%
4.18%
4.2%
4.2%
4.215%
4.215%
4.23%
4.23%
4.205%
4.205%
4.19%
4.19%
4.205%
4.205%
4.21%
4.21%
4.19%
4.19%
4.195%
4.195%
4.23%
4.23%
4.22%
4.22%
4.24%
4.24%
4.315%
4.315%
4.39%
4.39%
4.38%
4.38%
4.37%
4.37%
4.41%
4.41%
4.43%
4.43%
4.445%
4.445%
4.43%
4.42%
4.43%
4.43%
4.41%
4.41%
4.43%
4.43%
4.66%
4.66%
4.74%
4.74%
4.81%
4.81%
4.87%
4.87%
4.92%
4.92%
4.98%
4.98%
4.99%
4.99%
5.09%
5.09%
5.115%
5.115%
5.135%
5.135%
5.195%
5.195%
5.205%
5.205%
5.22%
5.22%
5.22%
5.22%
5.22%
5.22%
5.225%
5.225%
5.24%
5.24%
5.235%
5.235%
5.235%
5.235%
5.24%
5.24%
5.245%
5.245%
5.24%
5.24%
5.24%
5.24%
5.23%
5.23%
5.2%
5.2%
5.205%
5.205%
5.215%
5.215%
5.21%
5.21%
5.205%
5.205%
5.225%
5.225%
5.215%
5.215%
5.215%
5.215%
5.18%
5.18%
5.15%
5.15%
5.185%
5.185%
5.185%
5.185%
5.18%
5.18%
5.2%
5.2%
5.21%
5.21%
5.22%
5.22%
5.25%
5.25%
5.24%
5.24%
5.24%
5.24%
5.26%
5.26%
5.255%
5.255%
5.285%
5.285%
5.34%
5.34%
5.335%
5.335%
5.355%
5.355%
5.355%
5.355%
5.35%
5.35%
5.345%
5.345%
5.34%
5.34%
5.33%
5.33%
5.335%
5.335%
5.33%
5.33%
5.315%
5.315%
5.305%
5.305%
5.31%
5.31%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.27%
5.27%
5.26%
5.26%
5.25%
5.25%
5.225%
5.225%
5.22%
5.22%
5.15%
5.15%
5.2%
5.2%
5.325%
5.325%
5.26%
5.26%
5.1%
5.1%
5%
5%
4.98%
4.98%
4.975%
4.975%
5.06%
5.06%
4.98%
4.98%
4.75%
4.75%
4.78%
4.78%
4.805%
4.805%
4.75%
4.75%
5.045%
5.045%
4.885%
4.885%
4.83%
4.83%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.645%
4.645%
4.62%
4.62%
4.61%
4.61%
4.68%
4.68%
4.57%
4.57%
4.55%
4.55%
4.425%
4.425%
4.44%
4.44%
4.4%
4.4%
4.43%
4.43%
4.4%
4.4%
4.32%
4.32%
4.3%