United States 10-Year TIPS Auction

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

2.22%

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

1.935%

Period:

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The United States 10-Year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) Auction measures the government's borrowing cost for long-term debt while accounting for inflation risk. This auction primarily assesses investor demand for these securities, influencing interest rates, inflation expectations, and overall liquidity in the economy.

Frequency

The 10-Year TIPS Auction occurs regularly, typically on a quarterly basis, with announcements made in advance and results released shortly after the auction concludes.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor TIPS auctions as they provide insights into market expectations regarding inflation and interest rates, directly impacting various financial instruments such as bonds, equities, and currencies. Strong demand for TIPS can signal growing inflation concerns, which may lead to adjustments in monetary policy expectations that affect asset prices.

What Is It Derived From?

The auction results are derived from a competitive bidding process in which institutional and retail investors submit bids based on the yield they require. The final auction yield is determined by the highest yield at which the total amount of securities offered can be sold, incorporating the bids received from various market participants.

Description

Preliminary auction results are released shortly after the auction, detailing the awarded yield and demand, while final figures are confirmed later, providing revised numbers based on calculated metrics. The 10-Year TIPS Auction is typically reported on a year-over-year (YoY) basis to illustrate trends in inflation expectations relative to past market conditions.

Additional Notes

This auction serves as a leading indicator of inflationary pressures and is compared with traditional 10-year Treasury bond auctions to gauge shifts in investor sentiment regarding inflation versus nominal returns. The TIPS auction relates to broader economic trends by reflecting investor confidence in the economy's capacity to handle inflation and interest rate changes.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the auction results indicate lower yields than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or inflation concerns is usually good for the currency but bad for stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Previous
May 22, 2025	2.22%	1.935%
Mar 20, 2025	1.935%	2.243%
Jan 23, 2025	2.243%	2.071%
Nov 21, 2024	2.071%	1.592%
Sep 19, 2024	1.592%	1.883%
Jul 18, 2024	1.883%	2.184%
May 23, 2024	2.184%	1.932%
Mar 21, 2024	1.932%	1.81%
Jan 18, 2024	1.81%	2.18%
Nov 21, 2023	2.18%	2.094%
Sep 21, 2023	2.094%	1.495%
Jul 20, 2023	1.495%	1.395%
May 18, 2023	1.395%	1.182%
Mar 23, 2023	1.182%	1.22%
Jan 19, 2023	1.22%	1.485%
Nov 17, 2022	1.485%	1.248%
Sep 22, 2022	1.248%	0.63%
Jul 21, 2022	0.63%	0.232%
May 19, 2022	0%	-0.589%
Mar 24, 2022	-0.589%	-0.54%
Jan 20, 2022	-0.54%	-1.145%
Nov 18, 2021	-1.145%	-0.939%
Sep 23, 2021	-0.939%	-1.016%
Jul 22, 2021	-1.016%	-0.805%
May 20, 2021	-0.805%	-0.58%
Mar 18, 2021	-0.58%	-0.987%
Jan 21, 2021	-0.987%	-0.867%
Nov 19, 2020	-0.867%	-0.966%
Sep 17, 2020	-0.966%	-0.93%
Jul 23, 2020	-0.93%	-0.47%
May 21, 2020	-0.47%	0.68%
Mar 19, 2020	0.68%	0.036%
Jan 23, 2020	0.036%	0.149%
Nov 21, 2019	0.149%	0.174%
Sep 19, 2019	0.174%	0.282%
Jul 18, 2019	0.282%	0.567%
May 23, 2019	0.567%	0.578%
Mar 21, 2019	0.578%	0.919%
Jan 17, 2019	0.919%	1.109%
Mar 22, 2018	0.764%	0.548%
Jan 18, 2018	0.548%	0.512%
Nov 16, 2017	0.512%	0.45%
Sep 21, 2017	0.45%	0.489%
Jul 21, 2016	0.045%	0.275%