United States Nonfarm Payrolls Private

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

43K

Actual:

167K

Forecast: 124K

Previous/Revision:

170K

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 140K

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Private measures the change in the number of employed individuals within the private sector, excluding farming, government, and a few other job categories. This indicator assesses key areas such as employment trends and labor market health, functioning as a critical gauge for economic growth and consumer spending potential.

Frequency

The NFP Private report is released monthly, typically on the first Friday of each month, often presented as preliminary data which can be revised in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the NFP Private as it significantly impacts financial markets, influencing the valuation of currencies like the USD, as well as stocks and bonds. Stronger-than-expected job growth usually bodes well for the economy, potentially leading to bullish sentiment in financial markets, while weaker data may trigger bearish reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The NFP Private is derived from the Business Payroll Survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which collects data from a diverse sample of employers, encompassing various industries across the nation. The calculations incorporate methodologies such as seasonal adjustments and weighted estimates to ensure accuracy and representativeness of the employment figures.

Description

The NFP Private report reflects employment changes as part of the overall labor market analysis, providing insight into hiring trends that can indicate future economic performance. It serves as a coincident indicator, often correlating with consumer spending patterns and overall economic health, which influences economic policies and market expectations.

Additional Notes

The NFP Private serves as a leading indicator of economic activity and is often compared to additional labor market indicators such as unemployment rates and the broader Nonfarm Payrolls report, which includes government employment. Its timely release allows economists and traders to gauge immediate economic performance trends, influencing market strategies and forecasts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. (Note: No specific numerical expectations provided for this event in this context.)

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 02, 2025	167K	124K	170K	43K
Apr 04, 2025	209K	127K	116K	82K
Mar 07, 2025	140K	142K	81K	-2K
Feb 07, 2025	111K	141K	273K	-30K
Jan 10, 2025	223K	135K	182K	88K
Dec 06, 2024	194K	200K	-2K	-6K
Nov 01, 2024	-28K	90K	192K	-118K
Oct 04, 2024	223K	125K	114K	98K
Sep 06, 2024	118K	139K	74K	-21K
Aug 02, 2024	97K	148K	136K	-51K
Jul 05, 2024	136K	160K	193K	-24K
Jun 07, 2024	229K	170K	158K	59K
May 03, 2024	167K	190K	243K	-23K
Apr 05, 2024	232K	160K	207K	72K
Mar 08, 2024	223K	160K	177K	63K
Feb 02, 2024	317K	155K	278K	162K
Jan 05, 2024	164K	130K	136K	34K
Dec 08, 2023	150K	153K	85K	-3K
Nov 03, 2023	99K	158K	246K	-59K
Oct 06, 2023	263K	160K	177K	103K
Sep 01, 2023	179K	150K	155K	29K
Aug 04, 2023	172K	179K	128K	-7K
Jul 07, 2023	149K	200K	259K	-51K
Jun 02, 2023	283K	165K	253K	118K
May 05, 2023	230K	160K	123K	70K
Apr 07, 2023	189K	215K	266K	-26K
Mar 10, 2023	265K	210K	386K	55K
Feb 03, 2023	443K	190K	269K	253K
Jan 06, 2023	220K	180K	202K	40K
Dec 02, 2022	221K	190K	248K	31K
Nov 04, 2022	233K	200K	319K	33K
Oct 07, 2022	288K	265K	275K	23K
Sep 02, 2022	308K	300K	477K	8K
Aug 05, 2022	471K	230K	404K	241K
Jul 08, 2022	381K	240K	336K	141K
Jun 03, 2022	333K	325K	405K	8K
May 06, 2022	406K	385K	424K	21K
Apr 01, 2022	426K	480K	739K	-54K
Mar 04, 2022	654K	378K	448K	276K
Feb 04, 2022	444K	150K	503K	294K
Jan 07, 2022	211K	365K	270K	-154K
Dec 03, 2021	235K	530K	628K	-295K
Nov 05, 2021	604K	400K	365K	204K
Oct 08, 2021	317K	455K	332K	-138K
Sep 03, 2021	243K	665K	798K	-422K
Aug 06, 2021	703K	700K	769K	3K
Jul 02, 2021	662K	600K	516K	62K
Jun 04, 2021	492K	600K	219K	-108K
May 07, 2021	218K	893K	708K	-675K
Apr 02, 2021	780K	575K	558K	205K
Mar 05, 2021	465K	210K	90K	255K
Feb 05, 2021	6K	50K	-204K	-44K
Jan 08, 2021	-95K	98K	417K	-193K
Dec 04, 2020	344K	589K	877K	-245K
Nov 06, 2020	906K	690K	892K	216K
Oct 02, 2020	877K	850K	1022K	27K
Sep 04, 2020	1027K	1200K	1481K	-173K
Aug 07, 2020	1462K	1474K	4737K	-12K
Jul 02, 2020	4767K	2900K	3232K	1867K
Jun 05, 2020	3094K	-7500K	-19724K	10594K
May 08, 2020	-19520K	-21050K	-842K	1530K
Apr 03, 2020	-713K	-163K	242K	-550K
Mar 06, 2020	228K	160K	222K	68K
Feb 07, 2020	206K	150K	142K	56K
Jan 10, 2020	139K	152K	243K	-13K
Dec 06, 2019	254K	175K	163K	79K
Nov 01, 2019	131K	80K	167K	51K
Oct 04, 2019	114K	133K	122K	-19K
Sep 06, 2019	96K	150K	131K	-54K
Aug 02, 2019	148K	160K	179K	-12K
Jul 05, 2019	191K	153K	83K	38K
Jun 07, 2019	90K	175K	205K	-85K
May 03, 2019	236K	180K	179K	56K
Apr 05, 2019	182K	170K	28K	12K
Mar 08, 2019	25K	170K	308K	-145K
Feb 01, 2019	296K	170K	206K	126K
Jan 04, 2019	301K	175K	173K	126K
Dec 07, 2018	161K	200K	251K	-39K
Nov 02, 2018	246K	183K	121K	63K
Oct 05, 2018	121K	180K	254K	-59K
Sep 07, 2018	204K	190K	153K	14K
Aug 03, 2018	170K	189K	234K	-19K
Jul 06, 2018	202K	190K	239K	12K
Jun 01, 2018	218K	183K	162K	35K
May 04, 2018	168K	194K	135K	-26K
Apr 06, 2018	102K	190K	320K	-88K
Mar 09, 2018	287K	191K	238K	96K
Feb 02, 2018	196K	180K	166K	16K
Jan 05, 2018	146K	185K	239K	-39K
Dec 08, 2017	221K	190K	247K	31K
Nov 03, 2017	252K	303K	15K	-51K
Oct 06, 2017	-40K	83K	164K	-123K
Sep 01, 2017	165K	179K	202K	-14K
Aug 04, 2017	205K	178K	194K	27K
Jul 07, 2017	187K	172K	159K	15K
Jun 02, 2017	147K	173K	173K	-26K
May 05, 2017	194K	185K	77K	9K
Apr 07, 2017	89K	175K	221K	-86K
Mar 10, 2017	227K	193K	221K	34K
Feb 03, 2017	237K	169K	165K	68K
Jan 06, 2017	144K	170K	198K	-26K
Dec 02, 2016	156K	165K	135K	-9K
Nov 04, 2016	142K	166K	188K	-24K
Oct 07, 2016	167K	170K	144K	-3K
Sep 02, 2016	126K	178K	225K	-52K
Aug 05, 2016	217K	170K	259K	47K
Jul 08, 2016	265K	170K	-6K	95K
Jun 03, 2016	25K	152K	130K	-127K
May 06, 2016	171K	193K	184K	-22K
Apr 01, 2016	195K	197K	236K	-2K
Mar 04, 2016	230K	185K	182K	45K
Feb 05, 2016	158K	183K	251K	-25K
Jan 08, 2016	275K	195K	240K	80K
Dec 04, 2015	197K	190K	304K	7K
Nov 06, 2015	268K	165K	149K	103K
Oct 02, 2015	118K	195K	100K	-77K
Sep 04, 2015	140K	215K	224K	-75K
Aug 07, 2015	210K	215K	227K	-5K
Jul 02, 2015	223K	225K	250K	-2K
Jun 05, 2015	262K	220K	206K	42K
May 08, 2015	213K	220K	94K	-7K