Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: European Commission

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.8

EUR

Actual:

-15.2

Forecast: -16

Previous/Revision:

-16.6

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: -16

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash measures the level of household sentiment regarding economic conditions and prospects, providing insight into future consumer spending and overall economic activity. It primarily assesses factors such as consumers' expectations about their financial situation, willingness to make major purchases, and sentiment towards the economy, forming part of regional economic health indicators.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, typically published on the last Tuesday of the month, and usually takes the form of a preliminary estimate that may later be revised.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Consumer Confidence Flash as it can significantly influence financial markets; higher-than-expected consumer confidence is often bullish for the Euro and equities because it suggests stronger future consumption and economic growth. Conversely, lower results may negatively impact currencies and stocks, indicating potential weakness in consumer spending and broader economic activity.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of approximately 1,000 households across the Euro Area, where respondents are asked about their views on current and expected economic conditions. It utilizes a diffusion index methodology, where responses are weighted to reflect the intensity of consumer sentiment, resulting in a composite score that indicates overall confidence levels.

Description

Preliminary reports are based on early responses and provide the first insight into consumer sentiment, while final reports are adjusted with complete data and released later, giving a more accurate picture. Generally, financial markets react more vigorously to preliminary data as it is indicative of current trends, though final releases might lead to adjustments based on revisions, particularly in volatile economic contexts.

Additional Notes

The Consumer Confidence Flash serves as a leading economic indicator, often predicting future consumer spending patterns, and is closely watched in relation to other indicators like retail sales and business confidence. Its readings can have implications for policy decisions within the Euro Area, influencing the European Central Bank's considerations regarding monetary policy stability.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 20, 2025	-15.2	-16	-16.6	0.8
Apr 22, 2025	-16.7	-15	-14.5	-1.7
Mar 21, 2025	-14.5	-13	-13.6	-1.5
Feb 20, 2025	-13.6	-14	-14.2	0.4
Jan 23, 2025	-14.2	-14.2	-14.5
Dec 20, 2024	-14.5	-14	-13.7	-0.5
Nov 21, 2024	-13.7	-12.4	-12.5	-1.3
Oct 23, 2024	-12.5	-12.5	-12.9
Sep 20, 2024	-12.9	-13	-13.4	0.1
Aug 22, 2024	-13.4	-12.6	-13	-0.8
Jul 23, 2024	-13	-13.4	-14	0.4
Jun 20, 2024	-14	-13.6	-14.3	-0.4
May 23, 2024	-14.3	-14.2	-14.7	-0.1
Apr 22, 2024	-14.7	-14.7	-14.9
Mar 20, 2024	-14.9	-15	-15.5	0.1
Feb 21, 2024	-15.5	-15.6	-16.1	0.1
Jan 23, 2024	-16.1	-14.3	-15.1	-1.8
Dec 20, 2023	-15.1	-16.4	-16.9	1.3
Nov 22, 2023	-16.9	-17.6	-17.8	0.7
Oct 23, 2023	-17.9	-18.3	-17.8	0.4
Sep 21, 2023	-17.8	-16.5	-16	-1.3
Aug 23, 2023	-16	-14.3	-15.1	-1.7
Jul 20, 2023	-15.1	-16	-16.1	0.9
Jun 22, 2023	-16.1	-17	-17.4	0.9
May 22, 2023	-17.4	-16.8	-17.5	-0.6
Apr 20, 2023	-17.5	-18.5	-19.1	1
Mar 23, 2023	-19.2	-18.3	-19.1	-0.9
Feb 20, 2023	-19	-19	-20.7
Jan 23, 2023	-20.9	-20	-22	-0.9
Dec 20, 2022	-22.2	-22	-23.9	-0.2
Nov 22, 2022	-23.9	-26	-27.5	2.1
Oct 21, 2022	-27.6	-30	-28.8	2.4
Sep 22, 2022	-28.8	-25.8	-25	-3
Aug 23, 2022	-24.9	-28	-27	3.1
Jul 20, 2022	-27	-24.9	-23.8	-2.1
Jun 22, 2022	-23.6	-20.5	-21.1	-3.1
May 20, 2022	-21.1	-21.5	-22	0.4
Apr 21, 2022	-16.9	-20	-18.7	3.1
Mar 23, 2022	-18.7	-12.9	-8.8	-5.8
Feb 18, 2022	-8.8	-8	-8.5	-0.8
Jan 21, 2022	-8.5	-9	-8.4	0.5
Dec 21, 2021	-8.3	-8	-6.8	-0.3
Nov 22, 2021	-6.8	-5.5	-4.8	-1.3
Oct 21, 2021	-4.8	-5	-4	0.2
Sep 22, 2021	-4	-5.8	-5.3	1.8
Aug 23, 2021	-5.3	-5	-4.4	-0.3
Jul 22, 2021	-4.4	-2.5	-3.3	-1.9
Jun 22, 2021	-3.3	-3	-5.1	-0.3
May 21, 2021	-5.1	-6.8	-8.1	1.7
Apr 22, 2021	-8.1	-10.8	-10.8	2.7
Mar 24, 2021	-10.8	-14.5	-14.8	3.7
Feb 18, 2021	-14.8	-15	-15.5	0.2
Jan 21, 2021	-15.5	-15.5	-13.8
Dec 21, 2020	-13.9	-16.8	-17.6	2.9
Nov 20, 2020	-17.6	-17.7	-15.5	0.1
Oct 22, 2020	-15.5	-15	-13.9	-0.5
Sep 22, 2020	-13.9	-14.6	-14.7	0.7
Aug 21, 2020	-14.7	-15	-15	0.3
Jul 23, 2020	-15	-12	-14.7	-3
Jun 22, 2020	-14.7	-15	-18.8	0.3
May 20, 2020	-18.8	-24	-22	5.2
Apr 22, 2020	-22.7	-19.6	-11.6	-3.1
Mar 23, 2020	-11.6	-14.2	-6.6	2.6
Feb 20, 2020	-6.6	-8.2	-8.1	1.6
Jan 23, 2020	-8.1	-7.8	-8.1	-0.3
Dec 20, 2019	-8.1	-7	-7.2	-1.1
Nov 21, 2019	-7.2	-7.3	-7.6	0.1
Oct 23, 2019	-7.6	-6.7	-6.5	-0.9
Sep 20, 2019	-6.5	-7	-7.1	0.5
Aug 22, 2019	-7.1	-7	-6.6	-0.1
Jul 23, 2019	-6.6	-7.2	-7.2	0.6
Jun 20, 2019	-7.2	-6.5	-6.5	-0.7
May 21, 2019	-6.5	-7.7	-7.3	1.2
Apr 23, 2019	-7.9	-7.2	-7.2	-0.7
Mar 21, 2019	-7.2	-7.1	-7.4	-0.1
Feb 20, 2019	-7.4	-7.4	-7.9
Jan 23, 2019	-7.9	-7.9	-8.3
Dec 21, 2018	-6.2	-4.3	-3.9	-1.9
Nov 22, 2018	-3.9	-3	-2.7	-0.9
Oct 23, 2018	-2.7	-3.2	-2.9	0.5
Sep 20, 2018	-2.9	-2	-1.9	-0.9
Aug 23, 2018	-1.9	-0.7	-0.5	-1.2
Jul 23, 2018	-0.6	-0.7	-0.6	0.1
Jun 21, 2018	-0.5	-0.5	0.2
May 23, 2018	0.2	0.4	0.3	-0.2
Apr 20, 2018	0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.6
Mar 20, 2018	0.1	0.1	0.1
Feb 20, 2018	0.1	0.1	1.4
Jan 23, 2018	1.3	1.3	0.5
Dec 21, 2017	0.5	0.5	0
Nov 22, 2017	0.1	-0.8	-1.1	0.9
Oct 23, 2017	-1	-1	-1
Sep 21, 2017	-1.2	-1.5	-1.5	0.3
Aug 23, 2017	-1.5	-1.8	-1.7	0.3
Jul 20, 2017	-1.7	-1.1	-1.3	-0.6
Jun 22, 2017	-1.3	-3	-3.3	1.7
May 19, 2017	-3.3	-3	-3.6	-0.3
Apr 20, 2017	-3.6	-4.8	-5	1.2
Mar 23, 2017	-5	-5.7	-6.2	0.7
Feb 20, 2017	-6.2	-4.9	-4.8	-1.3
Jan 23, 2017	-4.9	-4.8	-5.1	-0.1
Dec 21, 2016	-5.1	-6	-6.1	0.9
Nov 22, 2016	-6.1	-7.8	-8	1.7
Oct 21, 2016	-8	-8	-8.2
Sep 22, 2016	-8.2	-8.2	-8.5
Aug 23, 2016	-8.5	-7.6	-7.9	-0.9
Jul 20, 2016	-7.9	-8	-7.2	0.1
Jun 22, 2016	-7.3	-7	-7	-0.3
May 23, 2016	-7	-9	-9.3	2
Apr 21, 2016	-9.3	-9.5	-9.7	0.2
Mar 21, 2016	-9.7	-8.3	-8.8	-1.4
Feb 19, 2016	-8.8	-6.7	-6.3	-2.1
Jan 21, 2016	-6.3	-5.7	-5.7	-0.6
Dec 21, 2015	-5.7	-5.85	-5.9	0.15
Nov 20, 2015	-6	-7.5	-7.6	1.5
Oct 22, 2015	-7.7	-7.35	-7.1	-0.35
Sep 22, 2015	-7.1	-7	-6.9	-0.1
Aug 21, 2015	-6.8	-6.9	-7.1	0.1
Jul 23, 2015	-7.1	-5.68	-5.6	-1.42
Jun 22, 2015	-5.6	-5.8	-5.6	0.2
May 21, 2015	-5.5	-7.84	-4.6	2.34