United States Philly Fed CAPEX Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

26.7

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

25.2

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The Philadelphia Fed Capital Expenditures Index, commonly known as the Philly Fed CAPEX Index, measures the level of capital expenditures planned by manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, which includes parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. It focuses on the investment intentions related to physical assets, such as facilities and machinery, assessing the manufacturing sector's optimism regarding future production and economic conditions.

Frequency

The Philly Fed CAPEX Index is released on a monthly basis, typically published on the third Thursday of each month, and may include preliminary estimates subject to adjustment in later reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Philly Fed CAPEX Index closely as it provides insight into the manufacturing sector's investment outlook, which can influence broader economic growth and corporate earnings. Positive readings tend to support bullish sentiments in equities and the U.S. dollar, while weak results may lead to bearish scenarios reflected in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

This index is derived from a survey conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve that collects responses from manufacturing firms regarding their planned capital spending over the next six months. The survey includes questions about expected changes in expenditures, highlighting trends in various sectors and is calculated using diffusion indexes which aggregate responses based on positive or negative growth expectations.

Description

Preliminary reports of the Philly Fed CAPEX Index are subject to revision as they are based on early responses from participating firms, while final reports provide more accurate data after further responses have been collected and analyzed. Month-over-Month (MoM) comparisons are used to assess shifts in spending without adjusting for seasonal variations, making it suitable for informing short-term economic forecasts.

Additional Notes

The Philly Fed CAPEX Index serves as a leading indicator of economic activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector, often correlating with trends in national capital spending. Its performance can be compared against other regional indices and national data, providing context to broader economic indicators and business cycle movements.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Nov 20, 2025	26.7		25.2
Oct 16, 2025	25.2		12.5
Sep 18, 2025	12.5		38.4
Aug 21, 2025	38.4		17.1
Jul 17, 2025	17.1		14.5
Jun 20, 2025	14.5		27
May 15, 2025	27		2
Apr 17, 2025	2		13.4
Mar 20, 2025	13.4		14
Feb 20, 2025	14		39
Jan 16, 2025	39		22.2
Dec 19, 2024	18.8		24.9
Nov 21, 2024	24.9		23.5
Oct 17, 2024	23.5		25
Sep 19, 2024	25		12
Aug 15, 2024	12		7.4
Jul 18, 2024	7.4		12.1
Jun 20, 2024	12.1		20.1
May 16, 2024	20.1		20
Apr 18, 2024	20		23.6
Mar 21, 2024	23.6		12.7
Feb 15, 2024	12.7		7.5
Jan 18, 2024	7.5		-7.5
Dec 21, 2023	-7.5		-1.3
Nov 16, 2023	-1.3		-4.8
Oct 19, 2023	-4.8		7.5
Sep 21, 2023	7.5		-4.5
Aug 17, 2023	-4.5	9.2	8.6	-13.7
Jul 20, 2023	8.6	6.2	9.9	2.4
Jun 15, 2023	9.9	-1.4	2.5	11.3
May 18, 2023	2.5	2.3	-5.4	0.2
Apr 20, 2023	-5.4	8.3	-3.8	-13.7
Mar 16, 2023	-3.8	8	7.5	-11.8
Feb 16, 2023	7.5	10.7	10.5	-3.2
Jan 19, 2023	10.5	15	16.2	-4.5
Dec 15, 2022	18	6.5	6.4	11.5
Nov 17, 2022	6.4	4.1	4.4	2.3
Oct 20, 2022	4.4	4.1	4.6	0.3
Sep 15, 2022	4.6	20	18	-15.4
Aug 18, 2022	18	4	4.4	14
Jul 21, 2022	4.4	10	11.7	-5.6
Jun 16, 2022	11.7	9	9.6	2.7
May 19, 2022	9.6	19	19.9	-9.4
Apr 21, 2022	19.9	24	24.8	-4.1
Mar 17, 2022	24.8	22	21.5	2.8
Feb 17, 2022	21.5	30	26.2	-8.5
Jan 20, 2022	26.2	21	20	5.2
Dec 16, 2021	20	30	31.1	-10
Nov 18, 2021	31.1		32.4
Oct 21, 2021	32.4		23.6