Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

1.69

Forecast: 1.69

Previous/Revision:

1.73

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The UBS Consumption Indicator measures consumer sentiment and spending in Switzerland, focusing on household consumption patterns, retail sales, and overall economic health. It assesses additional components, including consumer confidence levels and expenditure intentions, which collectively provide insights into domestic economic activity.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, with preliminary estimates published around the first week of the following month, allowing for timely insights into consumer behavior.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the UBS Consumption Indicator as it serves as a barometer for economic activity and future growth prospects in Switzerland, which can influence the Swiss franc (CHF) and Swiss equities. A rise in the indicator often signals stronger consumer demand, leading to bullish sentiment in related markets, while a decline may indicate economic weakness, impacting financial assets negatively.

What Is It Derived From?

The UBS Consumption Indicator is derived from a combination of survey data involving households and businesses, where participants provide insights into their spending habits, expectations, and economic outlook. The methodology includes a diffusion index that aggregates responses, capturing the relative strength of consumer sentiment across various sectors.

Description

Preliminary reports of the UBS Consumption Indicator reflect early estimates based on survey responses and are subject to revisions as additional data becomes available. The final reports provide a more standardized and comprehensive overview of consumer behavior over the reporting period. The indicator is presented in a year-over-year format, comparing current readings with those from the same month in the previous year, which allows for the assessment of long-term trends without seasonal distortions.

Additional Notes

The UBS Consumption Indicator can be considered a coincident economic measure since it reflects current consumer behavior influencing economic activity. It is often analyzed alongside other indicators such as retail sales and GDP growth rates to provide a fuller picture of economic strength and domestic demand trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CHF, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CHF, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jan 31, 2018	1.69	1.69	1.73
Dec 27, 2017	1.67	1.59	1.68	0.08
Nov 29, 2017	1.54	1.51	1.51	0.03
Oct 25, 2017	1.56	1.57	1.5	-0.01
Sep 27, 2017	1.53	1.42	1.46	0.11
Aug 30, 2017	1.38	1.44	1.3	-0.06
Jul 26, 2017	1.38	1.45	1.32	-0.07
Jun 28, 2017	1.39	1.52	1.34	-0.13
May 31, 2017	1.48	1.55	1.44	-0.07
Apr 26, 2017	1.5	1.55	1.45	-0.05
Mar 29, 2017	1.5	1.47	1.44	0.03
Mar 01, 2017	1.43	1.54	1.38	-0.11
Jan 25, 2017	1.5	1.51	1.45	-0.01
Dec 28, 2016	1.43	1.54	1.39	-0.11
Nov 30, 2016	1.49	1.55	1.47	-0.06
Oct 27, 2016	1.59	1.49	1.53	0.1
Sep 28, 2016	1.53	1.36	1.45	0.17
Aug 31, 2016	1.32	1.38	1.21	-0.06
Jul 27, 2016	1.34	1.39	1.24	-0.05
Jun 29, 2016	1.35	1.51	1.24	-0.16
May 25, 2016	1.47	1.54	1.4	-0.07
Apr 27, 2016	1.51	1.57	1.45	-0.06
Mar 30, 2016	1.53	1.63	1.45	-0.1
Feb 24, 2016	1.66	1.59	1.61	0.07
Jan 27, 2016	1.62	1.68	1.55	-0.06
Dec 30, 2015	1.66	1.56	1.63	0.1
Nov 25, 2015	1.6	1.62	1.56	-0.02
Oct 27, 2015	1.65	1.65	1.64
Sep 30, 2015	1.63	1.61	1.59	0.02
Aug 26, 2015	1.64	1.59	1.61	0.05