United States Fed Beige Book

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The United States Fed Beige Book measures economic conditions across various districts in the U.S. It focuses primarily on the economic activity by assessing components such as consumer spending, employment, inflation, and overall business sentiment, making it a crucial indicator of regional economic health.

Frequency

The Beige Book is released on a quarterly basis, typically two weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and represents an anecdotal assessment rather than definitive statistics.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the Beige Book as it provides insights into the current economic climate, which can influence monetary policy decisions. Strong indicators of growth or inflation can lead to tighter monetary policy, impacting key assets like the U.S. dollar, equities, and bond yields.

What Is It Derived From?

The Beige Book is derived from reports submitted by the twelve Federal Reserve District Banks through interviews with business leaders, economists, and market analysts across various sectors. The qualitative information collected is then synthesized to reflect prevailing economic trends and sentiment.

Description

The Beige Book consists of qualitative summaries of economic conditions and is not issued in a preliminary or final report format; it reflects current insights and perceptions about the economy at the time of publication. It evaluates overall economic trends, leading to its classification as a coincident indicator, offering insights into the current state of the economy rather than predictive measures.

Additional Notes

The Beige Book is often compared to more quantitative indicators such as the GDP or employment figures, serving as a complementary measure to gauge economic sentiment alongside statistical data. As a coincident indicator, its insights can influence market forecasts and are seen as a reflection of real-time economic dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

The information from the Beige Book is often analyzed relative to economic expectations. If current economic reports indicate stronger conditions than anticipated, it could be described as bullish for the U.S. dollar and bullish for stocks based on improved business sentiment and potential for higher consumer spending.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise