Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

1.2

CAD

Actual:

Forecast: 50.8

Previous/Revision:

51.1

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 51.9

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI measures the health of the manufacturing sector in Canada, focusing on production levels, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is a crucial indicator of broader economic conditions, where a PMI above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 signifies contraction in the manufacturing industry.

Frequency

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is released monthly, typically as a preliminary estimate at the beginning of the month for the preceding month, allowing for timely insights into manufacturing trends.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Manufacturing PMI as it provides valuable insights into economic conditions, influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics across currencies (especially the CAD), stocks, and commodities. A higher-than-expected PMI can bolster market confidence and drive asset prices up, while weaker results may lead to bearish reactions in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Manufacturing PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector in Canada, utilizing a sample of around 300 firms. The index is calculated using a diffusion index approach, where positive responses contribute to a score that reflects overall business sentiment and activity levels within the industry.

Description

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI gives investors and policymakers critical insights into the manufacturing sector's performance, capturing a range of factors such as output, employment levels, and new orders. While preliminary figures provide timely data, final reports offer a more refined view, with traders often reacting strongly to initial releases due to their immediacy, albeit reserving caution for adjustments in final data.

Additional Notes

As a leading indicator, the Manufacturing PMI provides foresight into the performance of the economy, particularly in relation to industrial production and broader economic activity. Its trends are compared with other economic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, as well as similar PMI reports from other regions, further contextualizing Canada’s manufacturing health within the global landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 02, 2024	52	50.8	51.1	1.2
Nov 01, 2024	51.1	50.5	50.4	0.6
Oct 01, 2024	50.4	50.5	49.5	-0.1
Sep 03, 2024	49.5	48.5	47.8	1
Aug 01, 2024	47.8	49.5	49.3	-1.7
Jul 02, 2024	49.3	50.2	49.3	-0.9
Jun 03, 2024	49.3	50.2	49.4	-0.9
May 01, 2024	49.4	50.2	49.8	-0.8
Apr 01, 2024	49.8	50.3	49.7	-0.5
Mar 01, 2024	49.7	48.7	48.3	1
Feb 01, 2024	48.3	45	45.4	3.3
Jan 02, 2024	45.4	48	47.7	-2.6
Dec 01, 2023	47.7	47	48.6	0.7
Nov 01, 2023	48.6	47.2	47.5	1.4
Oct 02, 2023	47.5	47.8	48	-0.3
Sep 01, 2023	48	49.2	49.6	-1.2
Aug 01, 2023	49.6	48.9	48.8	0.7
Jul 04, 2023	48.8	48.4	49	0.4
Jun 01, 2023	49	50.1	50.2	-1.1
May 01, 2023	50.2	48	48.6	2.2
Apr 03, 2023	48.6	51	52.4	-2.4
Mar 01, 2023	52.4	50	51	2.4
Feb 01, 2023	51	49	49.2	2
Jan 03, 2023	49.2	49	49.6	0.2
Dec 01, 2022	49.6	48	48.8	1.6
Nov 01, 2022	48.8	49	49.8	-0.2
Oct 03, 2022	49.8	49	48.7	0.8
Sep 01, 2022	48.7	51	52.5	-2.3
Aug 02, 2022	52.5	54	54.6	-1.5
Jul 04, 2022	54.6	56	56.8	-1.4
Jun 01, 2022	56.8	55	56.2	1.8
May 02, 2022	56.2	58	58.9	-1.8
Apr 01, 2022	58.9	56	56.6	2.9