United States Non Farm Payrolls

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

37K

USD

Actual:

147K

Forecast: 110K

Previous/Revision:

144K

Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul

What Does It Measure?

The United States Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry, government, private household employees, and a few other job sectors. The primary focus is on employment, which reflects the health of the labor market and overall economic activity, often assessed through key indicators such as the unemployment rate and wage growth.

Frequency

The NFP report is released monthly, typically on the first Friday of each month, providing the final figures for employment data from the previous month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the NFP report as it significantly influences financial markets, affecting currencies, particularly the USD, as well as stocks and bonds. Stronger-than-expected employment figures can signal economic growth, leading to bullish sentiments in currencies and equities, while weaker results may indicate economic contraction and elicit bearish reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The NFP data is derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly survey, which includes a comprehensive sample of businesses across various sectors to gauge employment changes. The methodology includes data collection from approximately 142,000 businesses, and the non-farm payrolls are calculated using a diffusion index approach, which weighs the contribution of new jobs against job losses.

Description

The NFP report presents both preliminary and final data, where the preliminary figures represent early estimates that are subject to revision, and the final data provides a more accurate count based on broader information. The financial markets react promptly to preliminary data due to its timely release, while final adjustments can reshape market sentiment as further insights become available.

Additional Notes

The NFP report is widely regarded as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current labor market conditions, and it has broad implications for economic outlook and policy direction. It often serves as a benchmark for evaluating related indicators, such as the unemployment rate and wage growth, thereby linking it to larger economic trends both domestically and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 03, 2025	147K	110K	144K	37K
Jun 06, 2025	139K	130K	147K	9K
May 02, 2025	177K	130K	185K	47K
Apr 04, 2025	228K	135K	117K	93K
Mar 07, 2025	151K	160K	125K	-9K
Feb 07, 2025	143K	170K	307K	-27K
Jan 10, 2025	256K	160K	212K	96K
Dec 06, 2024	227K	200K	36K	27K
Nov 01, 2024	12K	113K	223K	-101K
Oct 04, 2024	254K	140K	159K	114K
Sep 06, 2024	142K	160K	89K	-18K
Aug 02, 2024	114K	175K	179K	-61K
Jul 05, 2024	206K	190K	218K	16K
Jun 07, 2024	272K	185K	165K	87K
May 03, 2024	175K	243K	315K	-68K
Apr 05, 2024	303K	200K	270K	103K
Mar 08, 2024	275K	200K	229K	75K
Feb 02, 2024	353K	180K	333K	173K
Jan 05, 2024	216K	170K	173K	46K
Dec 08, 2023	199K	180K	150K	19K
Nov 03, 2023	150K	180K	297K	-30K
Oct 06, 2023	336K	170K	227K	166K
Sep 01, 2023	187K	170K	157K	17K
Aug 04, 2023	187K	200K	185K	-13K
Jul 07, 2023	209K	225K	306K	-16K
Jun 02, 2023	339K	190K	294K	149K
May 05, 2023	253K	180K	165K	73K
Apr 07, 2023	236K	239K	326K	-3K
Mar 10, 2023	311K	205K	504K	106K
Feb 03, 2023	517K	185K	260K	332K
Jan 06, 2023	223K	200K	256K	23K
Dec 02, 2022	263K	200K	284K	63K
Nov 04, 2022	261K	200K	315K	61K
Oct 07, 2022	263K	250K	315K	13K
Sep 02, 2022	315K	300K	526K	15K
Aug 05, 2022	528K	250K	398K	278K
Jul 08, 2022	372K	268K	384K	104K
Jun 03, 2022	390K	325K	436K	65K
May 06, 2022	428K	391K	428K	37K
Apr 01, 2022	431K	490K	750K	-59K
Mar 04, 2022	678K	400K	481K	278K
Feb 04, 2022	467K	150K	510K	317K
Jan 07, 2022	199K	400K	249K	-201K
Dec 03, 2021	210K	550K	546K	-340K
Nov 05, 2021	531K	450K	312K	81K
Oct 08, 2021	194K	500K	366K	-306K
Sep 03, 2021	235K	750K	1053K	-515K
Aug 06, 2021	943K	870K	938K	73K
Jul 02, 2021	850K	700K	583K	150K
Jun 04, 2021	559K	650K	278K	-91K
May 07, 2021	266K	978K	770K	-712K
Apr 02, 2021	916K	647K	468K	269K
Mar 05, 2021	379K	182K	166K	197K
Feb 05, 2021	49K	50K	-227K	-1K
Jan 08, 2021	-140K	71K	336K	-211K
Dec 04, 2020	245K	469K	610K	-224K
Nov 06, 2020	638K	600K	672K	38K
Oct 02, 2020	661K	850K	1489K	-189K
Sep 04, 2020	1371K	1400K	1734K	-29K
Aug 07, 2020	1763K	1600K	4800K	163K
Jul 02, 2020	4800K	3000K	2699K	1800K
Jun 05, 2020	2509K	-8000K	-20687K	10509K
May 08, 2020	-20500K	-22000K	-870K	1500K
Apr 03, 2020	-701K	-100K	275K	-601K
Mar 06, 2020	273K	175K	273K	98K
Feb 07, 2020	225K	160K	147K	65K
Jan 10, 2020	145K	164K	256K	-19K
Dec 06, 2019	266K	180K	156K	86K
Nov 01, 2019	128K	89K	180K	39K
Oct 04, 2019	136K	145K	168K	-9K
Sep 06, 2019	130K	158K	159K	-28K
Aug 02, 2019	164K	164K	193K
Jul 05, 2019	224K	160K	72K	64K
Jun 07, 2019	75K	185K	224K	-110K
May 03, 2019	263K	185K	189K	78K
Apr 05, 2019	196K	180K	33K	16K
Mar 08, 2019	20K	180K	311K	-160K
Feb 01, 2019	304K	165K	222K	139K
Jan 04, 2019	312K	177K	176K	135K
Dec 07, 2018	155K	200K	237K	-45K
Nov 02, 2018	250K	190K	118K	60K
Oct 05, 2018	134K	185K	270K	-51K
Sep 07, 2018	201K	191K	147K	10K
Aug 03, 2018	157K	190K	248K	-33K
Jul 06, 2018	213K	195K	244K	18K
Jun 01, 2018	223K	189K	159K	34K
May 04, 2018	164K	192K	135K	-28K
Apr 06, 2018	103K	193K	326K	-90K
Mar 09, 2018	313K	200K	239K	113K
Feb 02, 2018	200K	180K	160K	20K
Jan 05, 2018	148K	190K	252K	-42K
Dec 08, 2017	228K	200K	244K	28K
Nov 03, 2017	261K	310K	18K	-49K
Oct 06, 2017	-33K	90K	169K	-123K
Sep 01, 2017	156K	180K	189K	-24K
Aug 04, 2017	209K	183K	231K	26K
Jul 07, 2017	222K	179K	152K	43K
Jun 02, 2017	138K	185K	174K	-47K
May 05, 2017	211K	185K	79K	26K
Apr 07, 2017	98K	180K	219K	-82K
Mar 10, 2017	235K	190K	238K	45K
Feb 03, 2017	227K	175K	157K	52K
Jan 06, 2017	156K	178K	204K	-22K
Dec 02, 2016	178K	175K	142K	3K
Nov 04, 2016	161K	175K	191K	-14K
Oct 07, 2016	156K	175K	167K	-19K
Sep 02, 2016	151K	180K	275K	-29K
Aug 05, 2016	255K	180K	292K	75K
Jul 08, 2016	287K	175K	11K	112K
Jun 03, 2016	38K	164K	123K	-126K
May 06, 2016	160K	202K	208K	-42K
Apr 01, 2016	215K	205K	245K	10K
Mar 04, 2016	242K	190K	172K	52K
Feb 05, 2016	151K	190K	262K	-39K
Jan 08, 2016	292K	200K	252K	92K
Dec 04, 2015	211K	200K	298K	11K
Nov 06, 2015	271K	180K	137K	91K
Oct 02, 2015	142K	203K	136K	-61K
Sep 04, 2015	173K	220K	245K	-47K
Aug 07, 2015	215K	223K	231K	-8K
Jul 02, 2015	223K	230K	254K	-7K
Jun 05, 2015	280K	225K	221K	55K
May 08, 2015	223K	224K	85K	-1K