Japan GDP Price Index YoY Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Cabinet Office, Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.1%

Actual:

2.9%

Forecast: 2.8%

Previous/Revision:

2.4%

Period: Q4

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 3.3%

Period: Q1

What Does It Measure?

The Japan GDP Price Index YoY Final measures the year-over-year changes in the prices of goods and services included in Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), explicitly focusing on inflationary trends within the economy. It fundamentally assesses economic stability and purchasing power, reflecting the overall price movements and changes affecting economic output.

Frequency

This indicator is released quarterly as a final figure, typically published about one month after the end of the quarter.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely observe the GDP Price Index as it provides critical insights into inflation trends, which can influence monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan. Higher than expected readings can be bullish for the Japanese yen and equities, while disappointments might lead to bearish sentiment, impacting currency and stock valuations.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP Price Index is derived from the national accounts data collected by the Japanese government, including extensive surveys of consumer and producer prices. This involves a comprehensive compilation of price changes across various economic sectors, ensuring a robust reflection of inflationary trends.

Description

The final report for the GDP Price Index is more precise than preliminary estimates, which are based on incomplete data and subject to subsequent adjustments. It offers a crucial measure for traders by providing a clearer picture of Japan's economic health, with year-over-year comparisons allowing for a better understanding of long-term price trajectories.

Additional Notes

As a primary inflation indicator, the GDP Price Index is essential for understanding broader economic trends, serving as a coincident indicator reflecting current economic conditions. It is often analyzed alongside other inflation figures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to gauge comprehensive price dynamics in the economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for the Japanese yen, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for the Japanese yen, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower inflation concerns is usually bad for the yen but good for stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 10, 2025	2.9%	2.8%	2.4%	0.1%
Dec 08, 2024	2.4%	2.5%	3.2%	-0.1%
Sep 08, 2024	3.2%	3%	3.4%	0.2%
Jun 09, 2024	3.4%	3.7%	3.9%	-0.3%
Mar 10, 2024	3.9%	3.8%	5.2%	0.1%
Dec 07, 2023	5.3%	5.1%	3.8%	0.2%
Sep 07, 2023	3.5%	2.6%	2%	0.9%
Jun 07, 2023	2%		1.2%
Mar 08, 2023	1.2%	1.1%	-0.4%	0.1%
Dec 07, 2022	-0.3%		-0.2%
Sep 07, 2022	-0.3%		-0.5%
Jun 07, 2022	-0.5%	-0.4%	-1.3%	-0.1%
Mar 08, 2022	-1.3%		-1.2%
Dec 07, 2021	-1.2%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-0.1%
Sep 07, 2021	-1.1%	-0.7%	-0.2%	-0.4%
Jun 07, 2021	-0.1%		0.2%
Mar 08, 2021	0.3%	0.2%	1.2%	0.1%
Dec 07, 2020	1.2%	1.1%	1.4%	0.1%
Sep 07, 2020	1.3%	1.5%	0.9%	-0.2%
Aug 02, 2020	0.9%	0.9%	1.2%
Jun 07, 2020	0.9%	0.9%	1.2%
Mar 08, 2020	1.2%	1.3%	0.6%	-0.1%
Dec 08, 2019	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%
Sep 08, 2019	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Jun 09, 2019	0.1%	0.2%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Mar 07, 2019	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.4%
Dec 09, 2018	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.1%
Sep 09, 2018	0.1%		0.5%
Jun 07, 2018	0.5%		0.1%
Mar 07, 2018	0.1%	0%	0.2%	0.1%
Dec 07, 2017	0.1%	0.1%	-0.4%
Sep 07, 2017	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.8%
Mar 07, 2017	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Dec 07, 2016	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.7%	-0.1%
Sep 07, 2016	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%