Australia CPI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.3

AUD

Actual:

140.7

Forecast: 140.4

Previous/Revision:

139.4

Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 141.3

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, effectively gauging inflation. Its primary focus is on consumer spending patterns and the cost of living, assessing key areas such as housing, food, transportation, and healthcare.

Frequency

The Australia CPI is released quarterly, with the report typically comprising final figures and reflecting data collected throughout the three-month period prior to publication, usually available by the end of the month following the reporting period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the CPI as it serves as a critical indicator of inflationary pressures within the economy, which directly influences monetary policy decisions and interest rates. Higher-than-expected CPI results are often bullish for the Australian dollar (AUD) and equities, while weaker results may exert bearish pressures on both assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The CPI is calculated using data collected through comprehensive surveys that determine the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services consumed by households. These surveys comprise thousands of price points across various categories, employing a weighted approach to reflect the importance of different items in consumer expenditure accurately.

Description

The CPI report distinguishes between preliminary and final reports; preliminary figures are based on early estimates and are subject to revision, while final reports provide a more accurate assessment of inflation trends. The report utilizes Year-over-Year (YoY) reporting, comparing current prices to those from the same quarter of the previous year, which aids in understanding long-term inflation trends and mitigating seasonal effects that might distort short-term measures.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic indicator, the CPI can signal future inflation trends and is often viewed in conjunction with other metrics such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and wage growth. An increase in CPI may indicate rising costs that could affect consumer purchasing power and overall economic health, making its readings particularly relevant in the context of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decisions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the AUD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	140.7	140.4	139.4	0.3
Jan 29, 2025	139.4	139.1	139.1	0.3
Oct 30, 2024	139.1	139.1	138.8
Jul 31, 2024	138.8	138.8	137.4
Apr 24, 2024	137.4	137.1	136.1	0.3
Jan 31, 2024	136.1	136.8	135.3	-0.7
Oct 25, 2023	135.3	134.9	133.7	0.4
Jul 26, 2023	133.7	134	132.6	-0.3
Apr 26, 2023	132.6	132.4	130.8	0.2
Jan 25, 2023	130.8	130.3	128.4	0.5
Oct 26, 2022	128.4	127.5	126.1	0.9