Euro Area Inflation Rate MoM Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: EUROSTAT

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.2%

EUR

Actual:

0.6%

Forecast: 0.4%

Previous/Revision:

0.6%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area Inflation Rate MoM Flash measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services in the Eurozone from one month to the next, specifically assessing inflationary or deflationary trends. It focuses on key areas such as consumer spending, purchasing power, and cost of living, with a significant emphasis on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and affected sectors like energy, food, and services.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis as a preliminary estimate, typically disseminated in the first few days of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the Euro Area Inflation Rate as it significantly impacts monetary policy and economic forecasts, affecting currencies like the Euro (EUR) and influencing asset classes such as stocks and bonds. A higher-than-expected inflation rate may lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), while weaker data could have the opposite effect, creating volatility in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The inflation rate is derived from the collection of price data across various categories representing the expenditure habits of households in the Eurozone, leveraging surveys and statistical techniques to compile the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Specifically, it involves assessing price changes through a diverse sample of goods and services, employing weighting to reflect their importance in consumer spending.

Description

The Euro Area Inflation Rate MoM Flash report presents a month-over-month change in the consumer price index, which serves as a key indicator of inflationary pressures within the Eurozone economy. Preliminary data reflects initial estimates based on early available figures, which are later adjusted in final reports to provide a more accurate depiction of inflation trends.

Additional Notes

This event serves as a leading economic indicator, foreseeing potential movements in monetary policy and overall economic health. Given its relevance, the inflation report not only influences Eurozone markets but also holds implications for global financial conditions, as inflation dynamics are closely monitored by investors worldwide.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the EUR but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 02, 2025	0.6%	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Apr 01, 2025	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%
Mar 03, 2025	0.5%	0.5%	-0.3%
Feb 03, 2025	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.4%	-0.1%
Jan 07, 2025	0.4%	0.2%	-0.3%	0.2%
Nov 29, 2024	-0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.5%
Oct 31, 2024	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Oct 01, 2024	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
Aug 30, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0%
Jul 31, 2024	0%	-0.3%	0.2%	0.3%
Jul 02, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
May 31, 2024	0.2%	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Apr 30, 2024	0.6%	0.6%	0.8%
Apr 03, 2024	0.8%	0.9%	0.6%	-0.1%
Mar 01, 2024	0.6%	0.5%	-0.4%	0.1%
Feb 01, 2024	-0.4%	-0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jan 05, 2024	0.2%	0.1%	-0.6%	0.1%
Nov 30, 2023	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%
Oct 31, 2023	0.1%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.4%
Sep 29, 2023	0.3%	0.7%	0.5%	-0.4%
Aug 31, 2023	0.6%	0.3%	-0.1%	0.3%
Jul 31, 2023	-0.1%	-0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2023	0.3%	0.3%	0%
Jun 01, 2023	0%	0.4%	0.6%	-0.4%
May 02, 2023	0.7%	0.3%	0.9%	0.4%
Mar 31, 2023	0.9%	1.4%	0.8%	-0.5%
Mar 02, 2023	0.8%	0.7%	-0.2%	0.1%
Feb 01, 2023	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.4%	-0.2%
Jan 06, 2023	-0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.4%
Nov 30, 2022	-0.1%	0.2%	1.5%	-0.3%
Oct 31, 2022	1.5%	1.3%	1.2%	0.2%
Sep 30, 2022	1.2%	1%	0.6%	0.2%
Aug 31, 2022	0.5%	0.6%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 29, 2022	0.1%	0.2%	0.8%	-0.1%
Jul 01, 2022	0.8%	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%
May 31, 2022	0.8%	0.1%	0.6%	0.7%
Apr 29, 2022	0.6%	0.5%	2.4%	0.1%
Apr 01, 2022	2.5%	1.9%	0.9%	0.6%
Mar 02, 2022	0.9%	0.4%	0.3%	0.5%
Feb 02, 2022	0.3%	-0.3%	0.4%	0.6%
Jan 07, 2022	0.4%		0.4%
Nov 30, 2021	0.5%	0.1%	0.8%	0.4%
Oct 29, 2021	0.8%	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%
Oct 01, 2021	0.5%	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
Aug 31, 2021	0.4%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.3%
Jul 30, 2021	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Jun 30, 2021	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
Jun 01, 2021	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%
Apr 30, 2021	0.6%	0.5%	0.9%	0.1%
Mar 31, 2021	0.9%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
Mar 02, 2021	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%
Feb 03, 2021	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.3%
Jan 07, 2021	0.3%	0.2%	-0.3%	0.1%
Dec 01, 2020	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Oct 30, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 02, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	-0.4%
Sep 01, 2020	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.4%	-0.2%
Jul 31, 2020	-0.3%	-0.5%	0.3%	0.2%
Jun 30, 2020	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
May 29, 2020	-0.1%	0%	0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2020	0.3%	0%	0.5%	0.3%
Mar 31, 2020	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
Mar 03, 2020	0.2%	0.3%	-1%	-0.1%