China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

49.7

Forecast: 49.7

Previous/Revision:

49.5

Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 50.2

Period: Jul

What Does It Measure?

The China NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the prevailing economic conditions in the manufacturing sector, specifically focusing on indicators like production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. This index is a national indicator that helps gauge the health of the manufacturing economy, with values above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The China NBS Manufacturing PMI is released on a monthly basis, typically published on the first working day of the month as a preliminary estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders are keenly interested in the NBS Manufacturing PMI as it provides an early indication of the manufacturing sector’s performance, influencing perceptions of economic growth. A strong PMI reading can lead to bullish sentiment for the Chinese yuan (CNY) and equities, while weaker readings could lead to bearish sentiments.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers across different manufacturing industries in China, combining their responses into a single index using diffusion indices. The survey captures key variables necessary for assessing economic activity and is weighted based on the size and importance of the surveyed firms.

Description

The NBS Manufacturing PMI presents both preliminary and final reports, where preliminary data is based on early survey responses and is susceptible to revisions. Conversely, the final report gives a more accurate representation of the manufacturing sector, released later, but often the market reaction is more pronounced to the preliminary data due to its timeliness.

Additional Notes

The NBS Manufacturing PMI serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting broader economic trends and the business climate within the manufacturing sector. It is often compared to other indicators like the Caixin Manufacturing PMI to provide a comprehensive view of manufacturing activity in China.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 30, 2025	49.7	49.7	49.5
May 31, 2025	49.5	49.5	49
Apr 30, 2025	49	49.8	50.5	-0.8
Mar 31, 2025	50.5	50.5	50.2
Mar 01, 2025	50.2	49.9	49.1	0.3
Jan 27, 2025	49.1	50.1	50.1	-1
Dec 31, 2024	50.1	50.3	50.3	-0.2
Nov 30, 2024	50.3	50.3	50.1
Oct 31, 2024	50.1	50	49.8	0.1
Sep 30, 2024	49.8	49.5	49.1	0.3
Aug 31, 2024	49.1	49.5	49.4	-0.4
Jul 31, 2024	49.4	49.3	49.5	0.1
Jun 30, 2024	49.5	49.5	49.5
May 31, 2024	49.5	50.5	50.4	-1
Apr 30, 2024	50.4	50.3	50.8	0.1
Mar 31, 2024	50.8	49.9	49.1	0.9
Mar 01, 2024	49.1	49.1	49.2
Jan 31, 2024	49.2	49.2	49
Dec 31, 2023	49	49.5	49.4	-0.5
Nov 30, 2023	49.4	49.7	49.5	-0.3
Oct 31, 2023	49.5	50.2	50.2	-0.7
Sep 30, 2023	50.2	50	49.7	0.2
Aug 31, 2023	49.7	49.4	49.3	0.3
Jul 31, 2023	49.3	49.2	49	0.1
Jun 30, 2023	49	49	48.8
May 31, 2023	48.8	49.4	49.2	-0.6
Apr 30, 2023	49.2	51.4	51.9	-2.2
Mar 31, 2023	51.9	51.5	52.6	0.4
Mar 01, 2023	52.6	50.5	50.1	2.1
Jan 31, 2023	50.1	49.8	47	0.3
Dec 31, 2022	47	48	48	-1
Nov 30, 2022	48	49	49.2	-1
Oct 31, 2022	49.2	50	50.1	-0.8
Sep 30, 2022	50.1	49.6	49.4	0.5
Aug 31, 2022	49.4	49.2	49	0.2
Jul 31, 2022	49	50.4	50.2	-1.4
May 31, 2022	49.6	48.9	47.4	0.7
Apr 30, 2022	47.4	48	49.5	-0.6
Mar 31, 2022	49.5	49.9	50.2	-0.4
Mar 01, 2022	50.2	49.9	50.1	0.3
Jan 30, 2022	50.1	50	50.3	0.1
Dec 31, 2021	50.3	50	50.1	0.3
Nov 30, 2021	50.1	49.6	49.2	0.5
Oct 31, 2021	49.2	49.7	49.6	-0.5
Sep 30, 2021	49.6	50.1	50.1	-0.5
Aug 31, 2021	50.1	50.2	50.4	-0.1
Jul 31, 2021	50.4	50.8	50.9	-0.4
Jun 30, 2021	50.9	50.8	51	0.1
May 31, 2021	51	51.1	51.1	-0.1
Apr 30, 2021	51.1	51.7	51.9	-0.6
Mar 31, 2021	51.9	51	50.6	0.9
Feb 28, 2021	50.6	51.1	51.3	-0.5
Jan 31, 2021	51.3	51.6	51.9	-0.3
Dec 31, 2020	51.9	52	52.1	-0.1
Nov 30, 2020	52.1	51.5	51.4	0.6
Oct 31, 2020	51.4	51.3	51.5	0.1
Sep 30, 2020	51.5	51.2	51	0.3
Aug 31, 2020	51	51.2	51.1	-0.2
Jul 31, 2020	51.1	50.7	50.9	0.4
Jun 30, 2020	50.9	50.4	50.6	0.5
May 31, 2020	50.6	51	50.8	-0.4
Apr 30, 2020	50.8	51	52	-0.2
Mar 31, 2020	52	45	35.7	7
Feb 29, 2020	35.7	46	50	-10.3
Jan 31, 2020	50	50	50.2
Dec 31, 2019	50.2	50.1	50.2	0.1
Nov 30, 2019	50.2	49.5	49.3	0.7
Oct 31, 2019	49.3	49.8	49.8	-0.5
Sep 30, 2019	49.8	49.5	49.5	0.3
Aug 31, 2019	49.5	49.7	49.7	-0.2
Jul 31, 2019	49.7	49.6	49.4	0.1
Jun 30, 2019	49.4	49.5	49.4	-0.1
May 31, 2019	49.4	49.9	50.1	-0.5
Apr 30, 2019	50.1	50.5	50.5	-0.4
Mar 31, 2019	50.5	49.5	49.2	1
Feb 28, 2019	49.2	49.5	49.5	-0.3
Jan 31, 2019	49.5	49.3	49.4	0.2
Dec 31, 2018	49.4	49.9	50	-0.5
Nov 30, 2018	50	50.2	50.2	-0.2
Oct 31, 2018	50.2	50.6	50.8	-0.4
Sep 30, 2018	50.8	51.2	51.3	-0.4
Aug 31, 2018	51.3	51	51.2	0.3
Jul 31, 2018	51.2	51.3	51.5	-0.1
Jun 30, 2018	51.5	51.6	51.9	-0.1
May 31, 2018	51.9	51.3	51.4	0.6
Apr 30, 2018	51.4	51.3	51.5	0.1
Mar 31, 2018	51.5	50.5	50.3	1
Feb 28, 2018	50.3	51.2	51.3	-0.9
Jan 31, 2018	51.3	51.5	51.6	-0.2
Dec 31, 2017	51.6	1.6	51.8	50
Nov 30, 2017	51.8	51.4	51.6	0.4
Oct 31, 2017	51.6	52	52.4	-0.4
Sep 30, 2017	52.4	51.5	51.7	0.9
Aug 31, 2017	51.7	51.3	51.4	0.4
Jul 31, 2017	51.4	51.6	51.7	-0.2
Jun 30, 2017	51.7	51	51.2	0.7
May 31, 2017	51.2	51	51.2	0.2
Apr 30, 2017	51.2	51.6	51.8	-0.4
Mar 31, 2017	51.8	51.6	51.6	0.2
Mar 01, 2017	51.6	51.1	51.3	0.5
Feb 01, 2017	51.3	51.2	51.4	0.1
Jan 01, 2017	51.4	51.5	51.7	-0.1
Dec 01, 2016	51.7	51	51.2	0.7
Nov 01, 2016	51.2	50.4	50.4	0.8
Oct 01, 2016	50.4	50.4	50.4
Sep 01, 2016	50.4	49.9	49.9	0.5
Aug 01, 2016	49.9	50	50	-0.1
Jul 01, 2016	50	50	50.1
Jun 01, 2016	50.1	50	50.1	0.1
May 01, 2016	50.1	50.4	50.2	-0.3
Apr 01, 2016	50.2	49.3	49	0.9
Mar 01, 2016	49	49.3	49.4	-0.3
Feb 01, 2016	49.4	49.6	49.7	-0.2
Jan 01, 2016	49.7	49.7	49.6
Dec 01, 2015	49.6	49.8	49.8	-0.2
Nov 01, 2015	49.8	50	49.8	-0.2
Oct 01, 2015	49.8	49.6	49.7	0.2
Sep 01, 2015	49.7	50.5	50	-0.8
Aug 01, 2015	50	50.2	50.2	-0.2
Jul 01, 2015	50.2	50.3	50.17	-0.1
Jun 01, 2015	50.2	50.2	50.1