United States NFIB Business Optimism Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

USD1.3

Actual:

95.8

Forecast: 94.5

Previous/Revision:

97.4

Period: May 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Jun 2025

What Does It Measure?

The NFIB Business Optimism Index measures the overall sentiment of small businesses in the United States regarding economic conditions, focusing on key areas such as employment, capital expenditures, and future sales. It assesses optimism through various dimensions, such as hiring plans and expectations for business expansion, making it a national indicator with implications for employment and economic growth.

Frequency

This index is released monthly, typically on the second Tuesday of each month, and provides a preliminary estimate that can be revised in subsequent releases.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the NFIB Business Optimism Index as it serves as a barometer for economic growth and potential consumer spending, influencing financial markets. Stronger-than-expected results can bolster confidence in the economy, impacting equities positively, while weaker readings may lead to bearish sentiments in currencies and stocks.

What Is It Derived From?

The NFIB Business Optimism Index is derived from a survey conducted with around 1,000 small business owners across the United States, focusing on their perceptions of current business conditions and their expectations for the future. The index employs diffusion indices to assess sentiment across various components, making it a reliable measure of small business confidence.

Description

The NFIB index reflects the health and outlook of the small business sector, often regarded as a crucial component of the U.S. economy due to its significant contribution to job creation and economic output. It is typically viewed as a leading indicator, as changes in small business optimism can precede shifts in employment and consumer spending patterns.

Additional Notes

This index can be compared with other economic indicators such as the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) and consumer confidence reports, serving as both a coincident and leading economic measure. Its national scope allows for broad assessments of economic activity and sentiment in the context of ongoing trends within other sectors and regions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. The NFIB index's optimistic reading often suggests robust economic activity, indicating potential for higher interest rates, which is generally good for the USD but may pressure stocks due to increased borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 13, 2025	95.8	94.5	97.4	1.3
Apr 08, 2025	97.4	101.3	100.7	-3.9
Mar 11, 2025	100.7	101	102.8	-0.3
Feb 11, 2025	102.8	104.6	105.1	-1.8
Jan 14, 2025	105.1	100.8	101.7	4.3
Dec 10, 2024	101.7	94.2	93.7	7.5
Nov 12, 2024	93.7	91.9	91.5	1.8
Oct 08, 2024	91.5	91.7	91.2	-0.2
Sep 10, 2024	91.2	93.6	93.7	-2.4
Aug 13, 2024	93.7	91.7	91.5	2
Jul 09, 2024	91.5	89.5	90.5	2
Jun 11, 2024	90.5	89.8	89.7	0.7
May 14, 2024	89.7	88.1	88.5	1.6
Apr 09, 2024	88.5	90.2	89.4	-1.7
Mar 12, 2024	89.4	90.7	89.9	-1.3
Feb 13, 2024	89.9	91.1	91.9	-1.2
Jan 09, 2024	91.9	90.7	90.6	1.2
Dec 12, 2023	90.6	90.7	90.7	-0.1
Nov 14, 2023	90.7	90.5	90.8	0.2
Oct 10, 2023	90.8	91.4	91.3	-0.6
Sep 12, 2023	91.3	91.6	91.9	-0.3
Aug 08, 2023	91.9	90.6	91	1.3
Jul 11, 2023	91	89.9	89.4	1.1
Jun 13, 2023	89.4	88.5	89	0.9
May 09, 2023	89	89.6	90.1	-0.6
Apr 11, 2023	90.1	89	90.9	1.1
Mar 14, 2023	90.9	90.4	90.3	0.5
Feb 14, 2023	90.3	90.5	89.8	-0.2
Jan 10, 2023	89.8	85	91.9	4.8
Dec 13, 2022	91.9	90.4	91.3	1.5
Nov 08, 2022	91.3	92	92.1	-0.7
Oct 11, 2022	92.1	91.2	91.8	0.9
Sep 13, 2022	91.8	91.1	89.9	0.7
Aug 09, 2022	89.9	88	89.5	1.9
Jul 12, 2022	89.5	92.8	93.1	-3.3
Jun 14, 2022	93.1	93	93.2	0.1
May 10, 2022	93.2	93	93.2	0.2
Apr 12, 2022	93.2	90	95.7	3.2
Mar 08, 2022	95.7	97	97.1	-1.3
Feb 08, 2022	97.1	98	98.9	-0.9
Jan 11, 2022	98.9	98.6	98.4	0.3
Dec 14, 2021	98.4	98	98.2	0.4
Nov 09, 2021	98.2	98	99.1	0.2
Oct 12, 2021	99.1	100	100.1	-0.9
Sep 14, 2021	100.1	99.5	99.7	0.6
Aug 10, 2021	99.7	101.9	102.5	-2.2
Jul 13, 2021	102.5	100	99.6	2.5
Jun 08, 2021	99.6	101	99.8	-1.4
May 11, 2021	99.8	98.7	98.2	1.1
Apr 13, 2021	98.2	99.1	95.8	-0.9
Mar 09, 2021	95.8	96	95	-0.2
Feb 09, 2021	95	101	95.9	-6
Jan 12, 2021	95.9	100.5	101.4	-4.6
Dec 08, 2020	101.4	105	104	-3.6
Nov 10, 2020	104	102.2	104	1.8
Oct 13, 2020	104	99	100.2	5
Sep 08, 2020	100.2	97	98.8	3.2
Aug 11, 2020	98.8	97	100.6	1.8
Jul 14, 2020	100.6	92	94.4	8.6
Jun 09, 2020	94.4	86	90.9	8.4
May 12, 2020	90.9	80	96.4	10.9
Apr 07, 2020	96.4	95	104.5	1.4
Mar 10, 2020	104.5	104.5	104.3
Feb 11, 2020	104.3	103.4	102.7	0.9
Jan 14, 2020	102.7	103.1	104.7	-0.4
Dec 10, 2019	104.7	102.8	102.4	1.9
Nov 12, 2019	102.4	103.5	101.8	-1.1
Oct 08, 2019	101.8	104.1	103.1	-2.3
Sep 10, 2019	103.1	104	104.7	-0.9
Aug 13, 2019	104.7	104.9	103.3	-0.2
Jul 09, 2019	103.3	105	105	-1.7
Jun 11, 2019	105	102.3	103.5	2.7
May 14, 2019	103.5	102.3	101.8	1.2
Apr 09, 2019	101.8	101.3	101.7	0.5
Mar 12, 2019	101.7	102	101.2	-0.3
Feb 12, 2019	101.2	103.2	104.4	-2
Jan 08, 2019	104.4	103.6	104.8	0.8
Dec 11, 2018	104.8	107.3	107.4	-2.5
Nov 13, 2018	107.4	108	107.9	-0.6
Oct 09, 2018	107.9	108.9	108.8	-1
Sep 11, 2018	108.8	108.2	107.9	0.6
Aug 14, 2018	107.9	106.9	107.2	1
Jul 10, 2018	107.2	105.6	107.8	1.6
Jun 12, 2018	107.8	105.2	104.8	2.6
May 08, 2018	104.8	105.2	104.7	-0.4
Apr 10, 2018	104.7	107	107.6	-2.3
Mar 13, 2018	107.6	107.1	106.9	0.5
Feb 13, 2018	106.9	106.2	104.9	0.7
Jan 09, 2018	104.9	108.4	107.5	-3.5
Dec 12, 2017	107.5	104.6	103.8	2.9
Nov 14, 2017	103.8	104.2	103	-0.4
Oct 10, 2017	103	105.1	105.3	-2.1
Sep 12, 2017	105.3	103	105.2	2.3
Aug 08, 2017	105.2	103	103.6	2.2
Jul 11, 2017	103.6	104.4	104.5	-0.8
Jun 13, 2017	104.5	105.2	104.5	-0.7
May 09, 2017	104.5	104	104.7	0.5
Apr 11, 2017	104.7	104.7	105.3
Mar 14, 2017	105.3	106.1	105.9	-0.8
Feb 14, 2017	105.9	105.1	105.8	0.8
Jan 10, 2017	105.8	99.6	98.4	6.2
Dec 13, 2016	98.4	96.7	94.9	1.7
Nov 08, 2016	94.9	94.6	94.1	0.3
Oct 11, 2016	94.1	95.2	94.4	-1.1
Sep 13, 2016	94.4	94.75	94.6	-0.35
Aug 09, 2016	94.6	94.7	94.5	-0.1
Jul 12, 2016	94.5	94.1	93.8	0.4
Jun 14, 2016	93.8	93.8	93.6
May 10, 2016	93.6	93	92.6	0.6
Apr 12, 2016	92.6	93.9	92.9	-1.3
Mar 08, 2016	92.9	94.5	93.9	-1.6
Feb 09, 2016	93.9	94.6	95.2	-0.7
Jan 12, 2016	95.2	95.4	94.8	-0.2
Dec 08, 2015	94.8	96.6	96.1	-1.8
Nov 10, 2015	96.1	96.4	96.1	-0.3
Oct 13, 2015	96.1	95.6	95.9	0.5
Sep 08, 2015	95.9	95.3	95.4	0.6
Aug 11, 2015	95.4	94.54	94.1	0.86
Jul 14, 2015	94.1	97.91	98.3	-3.81
Jun 09, 2015	98.3	98.33	96.9	-0.03
May 12, 2015	96.9	93.46	95.2	3.44