United States Early Market Close in Observance of Thanksgiving Day

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: Nov 2024

What Does It Measure?

The Early Market Close in Observance of Thanksgiving Day measures the shortened trading hours of financial markets in the United States on the day prior to Thanksgiving, which reflects market sentiment and investor behavior during holiday periods. This event primarily focuses on trading volume patterns and can influence market volatility around holiday-related economic activities.

Frequency

The Early Market Close occurs annually, specifically on the trading day before Thanksgiving, which is celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November; markets typically close at 1 PM EST instead of the usual 4 PM.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Early Market Close as it often leads to reduced trading volumes and increased volatility, which can impact asset prices, particularly for equities and financial markets as participants adjust their positions before the holiday. The significance of this early close lies in its effect on investor sentiment and the seasonal trends that correspond with holiday spending and economic activity.

What Is It Derived From?

The event is derived from established trading practices on U.S. stock exchanges, where a consensus among major market participants, including exchanges and brokerages, has led to this practice. Its timing and implementation are based on historical norms rather than any specific quantitative survey or new economic data.

Description

The Early Market Close is characterized by a change in regular trading hours, typically resulting in lower trading volumes as many investors take time off for the holiday. Given the nature of this day, traders often make fewer transactions, leading to differential price movements as liquidity can significantly drop, affecting price stability and spreads.

Additional Notes

This event can be seen as a coincident economic measure reflecting broader consumer behavior during the Thanksgiving holiday season, which is often associated with increased retail spending. The early close also aligns with trends in consumer confidence and discretionary spending, as well as impacting other regions that observe similar holiday schedules.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Not applicable, as this event does not provide numerical forecasts or expectations that would classify it into bullish or bearish categories for currencies or stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise