Japan Reuters Tankan Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

JPY12

Actual:

Forecast: -3

Previous/Revision:

-1

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: 3

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Japan Reuters Tankan Index measures the sentiment of businesses in Japan, focusing on sectors such as manufacturing and non-manufacturing. It assesses key areas like production, employment, and economic outlook, with the results represented on a scale where values above 0 indicate optimism and values below 0 indicate pessimism.

Frequency

The Index is released quarterly, typically providing both preliminary and final figures, with preliminary data usually published in early January, April, July, and October.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Japan Reuters Tankan Index because it serves as a vital indicator of economic health and business confidence in Japan, influencing currency values (such as the yen), stocks, and bonds. Stronger-than-expected readings can boost investor sentiment and strengthen the yen, while weaker readings may lead to bearish market reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The Index is derived from a survey conducted among thousands of executives from various companies in Japan, focusing on evaluating current business conditions and expectations for the next quarter. The survey captures quantitative data through diffusion indices, where responses indicate whether conditions are perceived as better, worse, or unchanged.

Description

The preliminary reports of the Tankan Index are based on initial responses and forecasts provided by survey participants, while final reports offer a more refined and accurate assessment following the aggregation of all data. The report compares the current sentiment to prior quarters and provides insights into future business activities, making it influential for economic forecasting.

Additional Notes

The Japan Reuters Tankan Index serves as a leading indicator, often predicting future economic activity based on current business sentiment. It is closely watched alongside other economic indicators such as GDP growth and Japan's industrial production, providing a broader context for economic trends both domestically and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Yen, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Yen, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 15, 2025	9	-3	-1	12
Mar 19, 2025	-1	10	3	-11
Feb 19, 2025	3	3	2
Jan 14, 2025	2	3	-1	-1
Dec 10, 2024	-1	13	5	-14
Nov 06, 2024	5	9	7	-4
Oct 09, 2024	7	6	4	1
Sep 10, 2024	4	11	10	-7
Aug 13, 2024	10	9	11	1
Jul 16, 2024	11	8	6	3
Jun 18, 2024	6	12	9	-6
May 21, 2024	9	7	9	2
Apr 16, 2024	9	9	10
Mar 20, 2024	10	3	-1	7
Feb 20, 2024	-1	7	6	-8
Jan 16, 2024	6	11	12	-5
Dec 05, 2023	12	8	6	4
Nov 07, 2023	6	3	4	3
Oct 10, 2023	4	2	4	2
Sep 12, 2023	4	10	12	-6
Aug 15, 2023	12	5	3	7
Jul 18, 2023	3	10	8	-7
Jun 20, 2023	8	7.5	6	0.5
May 23, 2023	6	1	-3	5
Apr 18, 2023	-3	-1	-3	-2
Mar 22, 2023	-3	2	-5	-5
Feb 21, 2023	-5	5	-6	-10
Jan 17, 2023	-6	6	8	-12
Dec 06, 2022	8	3	2	5
Nov 08, 2022	2	5	5	-3
Oct 11, 2022	5	8	10	-3
Sep 13, 2022	10	14	13	-4
Aug 16, 2022	13	8	9	5
Jul 12, 2022	9	8	9	1
Jun 14, 2022	9	4	5	5
May 17, 2022	5	10	11	-5
Apr 12, 2022	11	5	8	6
Mar 15, 2022	8	3	6	5
Feb 15, 2022	6	19	17	-13
Jan 11, 2022	17	24	22	-7
Dec 07, 2021	22	14	13	8
Nov 09, 2021	13	15	16	-2
Oct 12, 2021	16	20	18	-4
Sep 14, 2021	18	39	33	-21
Aug 18, 2021	33	26	25	7
Jul 13, 2021	25	20	22	5
Jun 16, 2021	22	18	21	4
May 19, 2021	21	10	13	11
Apr 15, 2021	13	8	6	5
Mar 16, 2021	6		3
Feb 16, 2021	3	-1	-1	4
Jan 17, 2021	-1	-8	-9	7
Dec 07, 2020	-9	-10	-13	1
Nov 08, 2020	-13	-28	-26	15
Oct 12, 2020	-26	-24	-29	-2
Sep 13, 2020	-29	-35	-33	6
Aug 17, 2020	-33	-32	-44	-1
Jul 14, 2020	-44	-40	-46	-4
Jun 16, 2020	-46	-28	-44	-18
May 19, 2020	-44	-36	-30	-8
Apr 15, 2020	-30	-28	-20	-2
Mar 16, 2020	-20	-7	-5	-13
Feb 16, 2020	-5	-13	-6	8
Jan 15, 2020	-6	-7	-6	1
Dec 04, 2019	-6	-10	-9	4
Nov 06, 2019	-9	-8	-5	-1
Oct 09, 2019	-5	-6	-7	1
Sep 11, 2019	-7	-2	-4	-5
Aug 18, 2019	-4	5	3	-9
Jul 18, 2019	3		6
Jun 17, 2019	6	10	12	-4
May 21, 2019	12		8
Apr 17, 2019	8		10
Mar 19, 2019	10		13
Feb 18, 2019	13		18
Jan 20, 2019	18		23
Dec 05, 2018	23		26
Nov 07, 2018	26		28
Oct 14, 2018	28		26
Sep 12, 2018	26		30
Aug 16, 2018	30		25
Jul 18, 2018	25		26
Jun 19, 2018	26		22
May 23, 2018	22		21
Apr 19, 2018	21		28
Mar 19, 2018	28		29
Feb 18, 2018	29		35
Jan 21, 2018	35		27
Dec 06, 2017	27		27
Nov 09, 2017	27		31
Oct 16, 2017	31		25
Sep 14, 2017	25		27
Aug 20, 2017	27		26
Jul 18, 2017	26		26
Jun 19, 2017	26		24
May 23, 2017	24		26
Apr 19, 2017	26		25
Mar 23, 2017	25		20
Feb 16, 2017	20		18
Jan 19, 2017	18		16
Dec 06, 2016	16		14
Nov 10, 2016	14		10
Oct 16, 2016	10		5
Sep 14, 2016	5		1
Aug 18, 2016	1		3
Jul 20, 2016	3		3
Jun 20, 2016	3		2
May 25, 2016	2		10
Apr 19, 2016	10		6
Mar 22, 2016	6		7
Feb 18, 2016	7		6
Jan 19, 2016	6		9
Dec 06, 2015	9		3
Nov 10, 2015	3		7
Oct 15, 2015	7		9
Sep 15, 2015	9		17
Aug 20, 2015	17		14
Jul 21, 2015	14		14
Jun 18, 2015	14		13
May 22, 2015	13		12